The Perfect Gift
May. 22nd, 2025 10:11 pm![[syndicated profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/feed.png)
starting to notice a pattern with these two
starting to notice a pattern with these two
Anthropic:
Today, we’re introducing the next generation of Claude models: Claude Opus 4 and Claude Sonnet 4, setting new standards for coding, advanced reasoning, and AI agents.
Claude Opus 4 is the world’s best coding model, with sustained performance on complex, long-running tasks and agent workflows. Claude Sonnet 4 is a significant upgrade to Claude Sonnet 3.7, delivering superior coding and reasoning while responding more precisely to your instructions.
It’s almost as though this is a fast-moving field.
There’s a recent rumor — from Mark Gurman, natch — that Apple is partnering with Anthropic to integrate Claude with Xcode. So Apple doesn’t have to do everything themselves. Developers, in particular, love modularity and choices. But whatever they do, once-a-year updates to “Apple Intelligence” aren’t going to cut it. Since last WWDC there have been dozens of AI code generation advances across the industry. Just last week OpenAI announced Codex, their “cloud-based software engineering agent”. Meanwhile, Apple’s Swift Assist still hasn’t shipped.
Juli Clover at MacRumors:
To change your default app, you’ll need to install the latest version of the Google Translate app, which was released today. From there, you can open up the Settings app, select the Apps section, tap on Default Apps, tap Translation, and choose Google Translate instead of Apple Translate. [...]
iOS 18.4 and iPadOS 18.4 added the ability for users to set a different translation app as their default. Users worldwide can select Google Translate or another translation app as an alternative, and there are also options for changing the default Email, Messaging, Calling, Browser, and Password apps. In the EU, users can also select a different default navigation app, such as Google Maps.
There’s a fundamental divide between providing an integrated experience vs. a modular one. Apple, of course, almost defines what it means to deliver an integrated experience. But neither fundamental approach need be all-or-nothing. Providing default app settings makes the platform stronger. Apple should want to support alternatives to its own apps and services, not do so only at the point of regulatory pressure. It’s clearly what’s best for the platform.
Mark Gurman and Shirin Ghaffary, reporting yesterday for Bloomberg:
Billionaire philanthropist Laurene Powell Jobs is an io backer as well, through her firm the Emerson Collective. Other investors include Sutter Hill Ventures, Thrive Capital, Maverick Ventures and SV Angel. Altman doesn’t have equity in io, OpenAI said. [...]
When he left Apple six years ago, Ive started the firm LoveFrom, a collective of designers and engineers. The staff includes veterans of Apple’s hardware and software departments, as well as friends of Ive and other collaborators.
He then co-founded io last year with Apple alumni Scott Cannon, Evans Hankey and Tang Tan. Hankey was Ive’s successor at Apple and remained at the company until 2023, while Tan led iPhone and Apple Watch product design until 2024. Cannon worked at Apple before co-creating the once-popular email app Mailbox, which was acquired by Dropbox Inc. [...]
LoveFrom has a number of former Apple designers who helped create the look of the Mac and iPhone operating systems, including Bas Ording, Mike Matas and Chris Wilson, Ive said. They could help redesign OpenAI’s app for a new generation of consumers.
I struggle to imagine what they even could be making, but that’s one hell of a lineup of talented ex-Apple folks. I know a few other people who’ve joined IO too, and they’re A-teamers.
MG Siegler, back on Sunday, before Judge Gonzales Rogers’s “settle this between yourselves or I’ll see you in court next week” order on Monday:
Again, Sweeney is not a moron, he has to know all of this. But why simply sit quietly when you have an excuse to poke the bear again and raise hell for your cause? So that’s what he’s doing. He wasn’t going to win the legal fight, but he could win the political one. And now he’s not going to win this legal fight, but he can win the pressure campaign. Especially important in the weeks leading up to WWDC...
If I’m him, here’s the general game plan:
- Re-submit Fortnite to the US App Store even though you have no legal grounds to do so. No one will care about that. They will have just read about your legal win and assume you won everything and so Fortnite can return — even though this particular aspect of the case had nothing to do with that.
- When Apple rejects (or refuses to rule) on the new submission, pull your app around the world under the notion that the unified apps all have to be updated in unison, including an element bringing the US back to the App Store. So yeah, blame Apple for this. It may even technically be true, but it doesn’t matter. Again, it’s a perception thing.
- File a new legal claim against Apple for blocking your submission in light of the recent ruling. Again, this has no legal grounds, but perhaps the Judge who issued that ruling is, in fact, pissed off enough to entertain this in some way — even if just in weighing in on it to dismiss it sympathetically, thus generating more press, instead of immediately dismissing it, legally.
- Give more interviews about all of the above in the coming weeks. Again, leading up to WWDC. Keep the pressure on.
I called it a double bank shot when Fortnite appeared back in the App Store, but MG described it before it happened. It worked.
PJ Vogt, in a very fun episode of his podcast, Search Engine:
A small group of Americans becomes convinced they’ve discovered something strange about their iPhones: a forbidden phrase the phone will refuse to transmit. A crack podcasting team searches for answers, wherever they may lead.
The bug is that if you send an audio voice message in Apple Messages, and mention the name “Dave & Busters”, the recipient will never receive the message. I had a good guess, right away, what was happening. But I don’t want to spoil it — it’s a fun listen.
But when you’re done listening, and you want a thorough explanation, check out Guilherme Rambo’s thorough investigation. So good.
The Sunday Times of London ran a good excerpt from Patrick McGee’s Apple in China (News+ link, in case you need it):
The ripple effect from Apple’s investments across Chinese industry was accelerated by a rule imposed by Apple that its suppliers could be no more than 50 per cent reliant on the tech giant for their revenues. This was to ensure that a supplier wouldn’t go bust overnight if a new Apple design did away with components it manufactured. So as iPhone volumes soared from under ten million units on its launch in 2007 to more than 230 million in 2015, Apple would encourage its suppliers to grow their non-Apple business just as quickly. The upshot of this policy was that Apple gave birth to the Chinese smartphone industry.
In 2009 most smartphones sold in China were produced by Nokia, Samsung, HTC and BlackBerry. But as Apple taught China’s supply chain how to perfect multi-touch glass and make the thousand components within the iPhone, those suppliers took what they knew and offered it to Chinese companies led by Huawei, Xiaomi, Vivo and Oppo. Result: the local market share of such brands grew from 10 per cent in 2009 to 35 per cent by 2011, and then to 74 per cent by 2014, according to Counterpoint Research. It’s no exaggeration to say the iPhone didn’t kill Nokia; Chinese imitators of the iPhone did. And the imitations were so good because Apple trained all its suppliers.
To get this message to Beijing, Tim Cook and his deputies visited Zhongnanhai, the citadel of communist power near the Forbidden City, in May 2016. They explained that Apple wasn’t just creating millions of jobs; it supported entire industries by facilitating an epic transfer of “tacit knowledge” — hard-to-define but practical know-how “in the art of making things”, as defined by the China-born Federal Reserve economist Yi Wen, who believes that such knowledge was “the secret recipe” behind Britain’s Industrial Revolution.
A former Apple executive says this message was “music to the ears of China”. Beijing had spent decades trying to catch up with the West’s lead in advanced industry, scientific research and economic might. It often resorted to spying, outright theft or coercive tactics. But here was America’s most famous tech giant willingly playing the role of Prometheus, handing the Chinese the gift of fire.
McGee’s book was in the works for years, but the timing of its publication couldn’t be more serendipitous, with Trump’s stupid tariff war.
The Daily Show:
Award-winning journalist Patrick McGee joins Jon Stewart to discuss how Apple built China in his new book Apple in China: The Capture of the World’s Greatest Company. They talk about Apple “sleepwalking” into this crisis, building a competitive market in Xi Jinping’s authoritarian state, the vocational training that boosted rivals, how Trump’s attempted Apple boycott backfired, and whether investments may be facilitating the annexation of Taiwan.
Terrific interview. I’m a few chapters into the book, and it’s good. McGee’s a good writer and a serious reporter — the depth of his research shows. It feels not like a few stories padded out to book length, but instead the distillation of a complex story that demands an entire book to tell.
Barry Ritholtz, in an excerpt from his brand-new book, How Not to Invest, marking the occasion of the 24th anniversary of Cliff Edwards’s claim chowder hall of famer, predicting doom for Apple’s then-new foray into its own chain of retail stores:
There are many genuinely revolutionary products and services that, when they come along, change everything. Pick your favorite: the iPod and iPhone, Tesla Model S, Netflix streaming, Amazon Prime, AI, perhaps even Bitcoin. Radical products break the mold; their difference and unfamiliarity challenge us. We (mostly) cannot foretell the impact of true innovation. Then, once it’s a wild success, we have a hard time recalling how life was before that product existed.
The Apple Store was clearly one of those game-changers: By 2020, Apple had opened over 500 stores in 25 countries. They are among the top-tier retailers and the fastest to reach a billion dollars in annual sales. They achieved the highest sales per square foot in 2012 among all retailers. By 2017, they were generating $5,546 per square foot in revenues, twice the dollar amount of Tiffany’s, their closest competitor. Apple no longer breaks out the specifics of its stores in its quarterly reports, but estimates of store revenue are about $2.4 billion per month.
May 2001 is so long ago, Daring Fireball hadn’t yet launched. So I can’t say I predicted the success of Apple’s retail stores. But what I recall thinking, at the time, was that it might work, and was definitely worth trying. Here’s the nut of Edwards’s 2001 piece:
Since PC retailing gross margins are normally 10% or less, Apple would have to sell $12 million a year per store to pay for the space. Gateway does about $8 million annually at each of its Country Stores. Then there’s the cost of construction, hiring experienced staff. “I give them two years before they’re turning out the lights on a very painful and expensive mistake,” says Goldstein. [...]
What’s more, Apple’s retail thrust could be one step forward, two steps back in terms of getting Macs in front of customers. Since most Mac fans already know where to buy, much of the sales from Apple’s stores could come out of the hides of existing Mac dealers. That would bring its already damaged relations with partners to new lows. In early 1999, Best Buy Co. dropped the iMac line after refusing a Jobs edict that it stock all eight colors. Sears, Roebuck & Co. late last year dumped Apple, sources say, after concluding that sales were too hit or miss. And in recent weeks, Mac-only chains such as The Computer Store and ComputerWare have closed down, citing weak margins. Now, faced with competition from Apple, others may cut back. “When you choose to compete with your retailers, clearly that’s not a comfortable situation,” says CompUSA Chief Operating Officer Lawrence N. Mondry.
Two decades later, talking about the importance of Sears as a retail partner looks pretty dumb. But to me, the obvious problem with this argument in 2001 is that if Apple’s existing retail partners in 2001 were doing an even vaguely good job, why was the Mac’s market share so low? At the time they were only a handful of years past the crisis where the company almost went bankrupt. Apple, in the old days, had some fantastic small mom-and-pop official retailers, but they were small. And the big partners, like CompUSA, absolutely sucked at showcasing the Mac. Their demo machines were frequently broken.
If you understood and believed that the Mac was a superior product, it was easy to conclude that its relatively low market share must have been a function of problems with its marketing and retail strategy. Gateway’s fundamental problem had nothing to do with the fact that it was running its own retail stores — it was that they were selling shitty computers. Apple was selling great computers, but had shitty retail partners.
(I’m a longtime fan of Ritholtz’s writing; I’ve got a copy of How Not to Invest — here’s a make-me-rich Bookshop.org link — and it’s next on my reading list after I finish Patrick McGee’s Apple in China.)
The Quilters (trailer) is a short documentary about a group of men in a Missouri prison who spend 40 hours a week making birthday quilts for foster kids and kids with disabilities.
The Quilters follows the daily lives of several quilters inside the sewing room at South Central Correctional Center, a Level 5 maximum-security prison in a small town two hours south of St. Louis, MO. From design to completion, the men reveal their struggles, triumphs, and sense of pride in creating something beautiful in this windowless, sacred space deep within the prison walls.
The Quilters is now available to watch on Netflix.
Tags: prison · The Quilters · trailers · video
It happened that I was looking back on my old game reviews, and I hit a link to a game web site, and the site was gone.
Not a shock. Web sites vanish. It made me sad, though. I like those single-game, single-message web sites!
I doubt anybody loves building them. There's this sense of capitalist obligation. If you're shipping a game, you need to grab a vaguely suited domain name and put up (a) screenshots and (b) links to all the store platforms and (d) a press kit in case a journalist notices. Once the game ships, you go back and fill in (c) adulatory press quotes. That's how you get any google juice there is to get.
I did this for Hadean Lands, and now every time I mention Hadean Lands on my blog I can link to hadeanlands.com
. That's great. Search engines dig it.
But of course I am on board with keeping my web site alive over decades. I registered eblong.com
in 1997, I believe. It will run as long as I pay the bills. When I registered hadeanlands.com
in 2010, I put it on the same hosting service and the same bill. No extra effort.
(Yes, my will allows my beneficiaries to keep my web sites running. I said decades, I meant decades.)
Not everyone can; not everyone does. How many sites have we lost?
You might ask whether these single-game sites are meant to last. (Leaving aside weirdos like me.) They exist solely for rando gamers to google. Commercial games media sites never ever link to them. I suppose I should put that in past tense, since there may not be any commercial games media left soon, but even nu-indie rags like Aftermath are inconsistent about linking to the developer site.
Weirdos like me will do it, though! Since 2019 or so, I've been using a standard tag for my game reviews:
Hadean Lands • by Zarfhome Software -- game site
But what is the "game site"? I don't want to link to the Steam page! Why should Valve get my precious link energy? I should support the developer, right?
So every time I post a review, I try to hunt down the real game site. My order of preference:
(Sorry, Steam is above Itch -- for this purpose. I love Itch. But if a game is on both platforms, then Steam is where they're making their money, and I want to support that. Obviously, if a game chooses to fly Itch-only, then I'll link there.)
Therefore, I have a good five-year history of links to game sites, game developer sites, and so on. I can poll them and count!
This is of course an extremely unscientific sample. It is almost entirely indie narrative, adventure, and puzzle games. A lot of it comes from the IGF lists, so it's relatively timely -- but I play some games a year or two after they come out. For IGF judging, I review some games before they come out.
I am testing whether the original URL, which I found for my review page, still works. No fair re-googling! This is about maintaining old links. An old URL is "alive" if it still shows you good game info, or redirects to a site that does. (Sometimes a developer takes down the game-specific site but keeps the domain as a redirect to their company site. That's fine.) A URL is "dead" if the server is down, or shows an error, or the domain has been taken over by an ad squatter. (Rearranged your studio site and the original URLs are 404? Sorry, that's a dead link.)
The links are categorized as dedicated game pages, company game pages, and platform (Steam/Itch) pages. This is fewer buckets than my list above, but it roughly describes how much effort goes into the upkeep.
This logic bakes in some assumptions about how web pages die. It's rare for someone to explicitly withdraw a game from circulation. (I don't think any of the games on my list did that.) Almost always the problem is an expired domain. Sometimes it's broken server tech (expired SSL cert, web framework busted, etc.) That's why it's useful to distinguish between "game-specific site" and "company site". If you have a lot of domains, your company site is probably worth keeping up, but you might stop thinking about old long-tail games.
And now, the numbers. Rotate the board!
Year | Game-specific | Studio | Platform |
---|---|---|---|
2024 | 22 — 2 dead | 15 | 6 |
2023 | 15 — 2 dead | 19 | 7 |
2022 | 21 — 2 dead | 15 | 11 |
2021 | 21 — 5 dead | 19 — 2 dead | 1 |
2020 | 17 — 7 dead | 21 — 6 dead | 7 |
(Totals are links in my review blog posts. Counted by hand; mistakes are likely. I didn't try to track 2019 or earlier years because I didn't have enough greppable links.)
I thought the wrap on this post would be "Don't make game-specific sites; they die quick. Create a studio site instead." But the numbers don't really support that conclusion. Yeah, game-specific sites die a bit faster, but only by couple excess deaths per year.
What this looks like is that indie studios have a death rate. When they go, the game page dies, whether it's a separate domain or part of the studio site. But the Steam/Itch page stays up -- presumably because it brings in a bit of money, and somebody is still happy to collect that.
(And you don't have to renew anything to keep the Steam/Itch listing up. Apple is its own can of worms, obviously, but let's not go there today.)
The death rate is low for studios that released something (that I played) in 2022, but heats up beyond that point. I don't have enough data for a real curve, but you can see the bump.
Also, for some reason, in 2021 everybody had a game or studio page. I only had to go to the Steam link once. Why? Say "COVID", why not.
Anyhow. I still think studio sites are easier to maintain than game-specific sites. When I registered hadeanlands.com
, that was a fit of optimism! All my later games (Meanwhile, Leviathan, etc) have been pages on zarfhome.com
.
(HL will never have a sequel, but... I'm holding the hermeticlands.com
domain. You know. Just to have it handy.)
But then, I'm a tiny solo outfit, and I have to watch my action points like a hawk. If you're any larger -- even a smallish indie -- you probably want the extra visibility of the dedicated game site. Just remember that it does take effort, over the years. Budget accordingly.